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June 29, 2020

FWF Market Insights-June 29, 2020

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

This report serves to help understand the economic trends occurring in the states that are currently open, or are in the process of opening up. All data is pulled from external sources, which are referenced throughout.

 

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDEX (WEI)

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is a measure taken from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Essentially, this takes data from past quarters, most recently Q4 2019, and compares it to similar data from this quarter on a weekly basis to give an estimation for where GDP currently stands. It is not a precise measurement, but it is known to be fairly accurate. This is an overall measure, and therefore, covers the United States as a whole. This can be deemed as an acceptable starting point for looking at the current economic standing.

  • Currently, the WEI is sitting around -8.20 percent for the week ending June 11, compared to -7.74 percent for the week prior.

**Data obtained from the New York Fed.**

 

UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

Taken from the United States Department of Labor, the data below shows the initial unemployment claims from each state. When looking at week-over-week change, it is evident that just about half of the states are seeing a rise in claims whereas the other half is seeing a decline. The big outlier one can see is Florida, which had a week-over-week change of 95,546 less initial claims.

**Data obtained from the United States Department of Labor.**

 

**Data obtained from the United States Department of Labor.**

 

COVID-19 DATA

The following data has been taken from Reuters and represents the current 7-day average of COVID-19 cases currently in the U.S. Since the reopening of many states, cases have started on the rise once again. Some of the biggest surges are occurring in Arizona (90% increase w/w), Florida (87% increase w/w), and Texas (84% increase w/w).

According to the analysis of data from The COVID Tracking Project, a volunteer-run effort to track the outbreak, 25 U.S. states reported more new cases last week than the week prior. This includes 10 states that saw weekly new infections rise more than 50%, and 12 states that posted new records.

 

** Data obtained from Reuters Graphics.**

 

Listed below are statistics, as of the week ending June 20, for states that are re-opening and have 5,000+ confirmed cases within the state. These figures will change as the states continue to ease their restrictions, meaning next week’s update will most likely show a different picture than the current data.

For a visual reference of all states, the graphic below shows new cases per week for every state in the U.S. The orange line represents new cases, and the blue bar represents a decline in cases for 2 consecutive weeks. Furthermore, the graphs are laid out where the state is located geographically in the United States.